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Runoff Report 1999.....Forecast 2000
It is still too early to make a good prediction about the upcoming spring runoff but the present conditions in this area point towards a normal runoff with no or just a few minor flood problems. An unusual warm winter brought less snow than last year and much of the snow in lower elevation is already melted away. Occasional snowfall doesn't add much to the remaining snow pack and disappears usually around the lake within a few days. As of today (16/02/2000) snow pillow data show a snow pack for this region within a normal height. The temperatures are expected to raise soon again, interrupted by just a few minor cold periods. The graphs in the weather section of this report may give some good indication about the normal tendency. The end of the winter is in sight. The soil in lower and medium altitude remained generally unfrozen through this winter. Snow water can penetrate the ground leading to a slow subsurface flow. Even a sudden warm period or extensive rainfall might not cause critical stream flow like it occurs during the fast surface flow of water. This gives the lake enough time to drain the water without major effect of its level. As for the main runoff all depends on the weather. We just have to wait and see. A very warm and sunny early summer might lead to minor flooding close to the larger streams. It is a simple task to calculate the expected lake levels and time frames based on the maximum flow capacity of the streams. Those "worst scenario" calculations, continuously done, will always point to the earliest possible occurrence of problems and show the remaining time left for flood preparations. Since I'm discontinuing my research I will not get into that. I suggest you check the links to the government here at this site. The "River Forecast Centre" is regularly updating their web site with short-term forecasts. I will still monitor the coming runoff to satisfy my personal interest in this topic but without publishing my findings at my web site. Everybody interested in that may always contact me.
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Copyright (C) 2003 Bernhard Kramer, Sicamous, BC - Canada webmaster@shuswaplakewatch.com